What happens when the people hired to solve a problem have an incentive to keep the problem alive?
Pigweed and Crowhill start with the famous Cobra Effect: the British tried to reduce the number of cobras in India by paying people for dead snakes, only to encourage people to breed more cobras. From there, the conversation turns to Pigweed’s Paradox: organizations created to solve problems can eventually become dependent on those problems for their own survival.
Along the way, we get into Goodhart’s Law, teaching to the test, government agencies scrambling to spend their budgets, Soviet nail factories, Wells Fargo’s fake accounts, nonprofits that can never declare victory, and the strange things that happen when a useful measurement becomes the goal itself.
The larger lesson: incentives rewrite behavior. Before creating a policy, metric, department, or organization to solve a problem, ask what behavior you’re actually rewarding.
And, of course, there’s an Oktoberfest beer involved.